Go the Distance at Olympic trials: 400, 800, 1500m

There are no locks in Olympic Swimming – anything can happen. But there hasn’t been so dominant a force in the freestyle arguably ever before Katie Ledecky came along. Ledecky made waves at 2012 US Olympic Trials as the 15-year-old prodigy threatening the veterans in crowded events like the 200 and 400 (where she finished 9th and 3rd respectively), and ultimately clinching the top spot in the 800, beating distance pro Kate Ziegler and breaking the USOT record.

Ledecky went on to win the 800 in London, set the American Record, and come just tenths off Rebecca Adlington’s World Record. Everyone said she had the potential to be the next Janet Evans, the US women’s distance swimming legend – suffice it say, that was an understatement!

Star swimmer, 19-year-old Katie Ledecky holds 11 separate world records in various freestyle events in Long and Short Course pools, and is the undisputed queen of freestyle.

Ledecky went on a tear over the last four years, breaking American and World records unrested, in mid-season, toppling giants and separating herself from the rest of swimming world in an amazing way. She is a once in a lifetime talent, with unmatched endurance, but most incredibly of all she has speed. Ledecky is the heavy favorite in the 800m freestyle for both Trials and the Games in Rio, however she could earn herself a spot in the 4×100 freestyle relay, an unprecedented move! She could potentially sweep the 200, 400 and 800!

She has no parallel on the men’s side. Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte have famed versatility in several strokes, but Ledecky is no slouch there either. She has a top-4 time for the 400 individual medley (once one of Phelps’s and Lochte’s signature events). So I’ll present the other potential qualifiers on the women’s side, but the heavy assumption is that Ledecky is going all the way. For the men, there are still heavy favorites, but it’s a bit more of a contest.

Also, a note – this is where short course yards (SCY) and long course meters (LCM) events diverge drastically. Below is a table of what events are swam in each pool. This will confound comparisons between NCAA collegiate swims and International swims, but I’ll try to lay out the 400, 800, and 1500 events as best I can.

Men

2012

In 2012, NCAA distance events were swept by German swimmer Martin Grodzki. The fact that Grodzki was denied admission to the Olympic Games by the German Federation based on the German’s highly selective qualifying times is a story for another day, but Grodzki would have been fairly competitive on the world stage had he been given the chance.

In the 500 free, Grodzki  was followed by Southern Cal’s Christian Quintero Valero, who finished 16th for Venezuela in London, not far behind Germany’s Paul Biedermann. In third, the first American to the wall, was Chad La Tourette of Stanford. Zane Grothe (Auburn), Connor Jaeger (Michigan), Sean Ryan (Michigan), and Michael McBroom (Texas) also all finaled. Georgia’s Andrew Gemmell finished 17th (we’ll get back to him later).

At 2012 Olympic Trials, The 400m free looked similar. The pack was led by veteran Peter Vanderkaay, who was followed closely by Conor Dwyer (the 2011 University of Florida graduate, and 2010 NCAA Champion in the 500 freestyle). Behind the two qualifiers (both 3:47), Michael Klueh, Charlie Houchin and Ryan Feely filled out the top 5, and among the NCAA finalists Jaeger finished 6th, McBroom finished 8th, La Tourette 10th, Ryan 11th and Grothe 14th. The majority of swimmers in the top 16 were in or recently out of college, but the two qualifiers were 28 and 23 respectively.

At the Olympics, Vanderkaay and Dwyer both made the finals and finished 3rd and 5th respectively. China’s Yang Sun won in a 3:40.14, South Korea’s Taehwan Park grabbed 2nd, and Vanderkaay found bronze with a 3:44.69. In this event, no American is in the top 8 all time swimmers (Vanderkaay is 10th, just behind American Larsen Jensen). The world has the edge on the US in this event, but gold is still within reach, with no individual ever going faster than 1:40.

Now looking at the field, Jaeger and Grothe have the top two American times since London, followed by Dwyer and McBroom. Jaeger’s 3:44 is the most competitive time by a good amount, but depending on which of these swimmers step it up the most any one of them could qualify. From the collegiate side, Townley Haas, the freshman from ___ won this year’s NCAAs with a 4:09.00, just tenths off of Peter Vanderkaay’s SCY record. Haas, and Mission Viejo’s True Sweetser are two new faces sitting amid a sea of veterans in the top seeds for Trials. If Haas has what it takes to make a big drop here he could easily nab one of the two spots, but field is distinctly more experienced than in 2012.

As for the mile, Grodzki also won that event at 2012 NCAAs, setting an NCAA record along the way. He was followed there by La Tourette, Jaeger, and Grothe. Andrew Gemmell of Georgia grabbed 5th ahead of Ryan and McBroom. Quintero-Valero finished 9th.

Olympic Trials were a wholly collegiate affair in this event though, as Gemmell upset the field and won with a 14:52, touching out Connor Jaeger. La Tourette missed the games by 5 seconds, and in fourth with a swim almost 20 seconds off his best was Vanderkaay. At the Olympics, Yang Sun took gold with a 14:43, and Jaeger managed to finish 6th with a 14:52. Gemmel just missed the final, snatching 9th.

Jaeger is currently the only American man within 20 seconds of the world record, held by Sun at 14:31. This seems impossibly far off for an American this time around. The NCAA Champion, Chris Swanson, the pride of the Ivy League, is almost 10 seconds off the times of Grodzki and Jaeger in the 1650 – he is currently ranked 45th with his LCM time.

(Fun fact – people think the mile can be boring but in both 2012 and 2016 the race at NCAAs came down to the last 50. Grodzki managed to hold off a surge by Chad La Tourette to win in 14:24.08, with a final split of 24.96 against La Tourette’s 24.06; For Swanson it was the opposite, as he overcame a nearly three-second deficit out-splitting lead Akaram Mahmoud 24.38 to 27.17 to win by .12)!

The real ‘newcomer’ on the field is open water sensation Jordan Wilimovsky – his time of 14:53 in the mile puts him third among active swimmers behind only Jaeger (14:41) and Gemmell (14:52). Wilimovsky was 2015’s “Breakout Swimmer of the Year” and his in-pool times have continued to drop. This Olympic Trials could be the stage where Wilimovsky ignites and puts himself in real contention in Rio.

Wilimovsky also has the dubious honor of being the Olympic 10K open-water favorite, allowing him to navigate the less-than-pristine Brazilian waters. Sean Ryan also grabbed the 10K qualification with strong swims at Worlds in Kazan last fall.

Women

Back in 2012 Katie Ledecky was not the dominant factor she is now, and the race for the 400 free was wide open. NCAA 500 freestyle champion Haley Anderson of Southern Cal, along with Georgia’s Amber McDermott (2nd), UNC’s Stephanie Peacock (3rd), Georgia’s Shannon Vreeland (5th), and Ashley Steenvoorden (6th) all were in the melee for a spot. However, experience and professionals prevailed as Allison Schmitt and Chloe Sutton nabbed the top two spots. The young Ledecky managed 3rd ahead of fellow teenagers Gillian Ryan (then 16), and Becca Mann (14). Veterans Elizabeth Beisel and Kate Zeigler also made the final ahead of the collegiate pack, led by Amber McDermott, who finished 8th. Vreeland, Steenvorden and Anderson finished 9-11 respectively.

At the Olympics Games, Schmitt was edged out by France’s Camille Muffat and found Silver, while Sutton finished 10th. Canadian Brittany MacLean, who would later swim for Georgia, finished 6th as an excited high schooler.

The 2016 scene is an exciting one. Leah Smith of UVA, the NCAA 500 champion, posted a time 4 seconds faster than Anderson’s in 2012. Finishing behind Smith was the Canadian MacLean, followed by Georgia teammate Hali Flickinger. MacLean won the 200 for Georgia, and also claimed silver in the mile.

Looking at the OT qualifiers, Smith has the edge over Cierra Runge (4:03 vs 4:04), who both have faster times than the Silver-medalist Schmitt, though she posted a 4:01 back in London. Becca Mann, still among the youngest in the group 4-years later, is in the mix with veterans like Beisel and Vrooman. Flickinger and Peacock both boast 4:07s to stay on the cusp of possible. But this is Katie Ledecky’s race. She has swum 8 of the top 10 times in history, and seems tireless! Whether Smith, Runge, Schmitt or someone else can nab second is up in the air, but Ledecky should have the first spot locked down.

Whoever makes it with Ledecky will be fighting for medal contention. After Ledecky who can push out a blistering 3:58.37, the Netherland’s Sharon von Rouwendaal and Canada’s MacLean pose the biggest threats, both turning in times around 4:03.

Scaling up to the 800m race, we can first turn to the NCAA mile. In 2012, the mile went to Peacock (who broke Janet Evans’s NCAA record, but was 14 seconds of Katie Hoff’s American Record). Georgia’s Wendy Trott was close behind, followed by Anderson, Steenvoorden, and McDermott. At Trials, Ledecky grabbed the top spot followed by Ziegler, keeping Anderson, Sutton, and Mann at bay. That final heat of the 800 was marked by incredible youth. Four of the eight finalists were under 18, and only Ziegler had graduated college! Ledecky went on to win her first and only Olympic Gold Medal, soundly defeating Mireia Belmonte Garcia of Spain, and Britain’s Adlington.

Now, four years later, Ledecky has the 9 fastest swims in history, and among active swimmers, Great Britain’s Jazmin Carlin is the closest, 9 seconds back. Sutton is not entered in this Olympic Trials so Becca Mann is sitting in a comfortable 2nd, ahead of Runge and Smith, but they’re close enough to make a race out of it. But Ledecky is in a league of her own. Her best time of 8:06 is a mere 5 seconds off of the Men’s World Record set by legend Bobby Hackett in 1976, the last American man to hold the record. Her mile time qualified for US Olympic Trials…by 24 seconds. She would be ranked 25th among the men. Ledecky is truly incredible, and it’s hard not to gush as a writer and as a fan.

In short, the men have their work cut out for them against a very competitive world stage, led by Yang Sun of China; but on the women’s side, it’s a race for second behind the dynamo that is Ledecky.

US Olympic Trials – 200 Freestyle

No man or woman has ever won the Gold in the Olympic 200m Freestyle more than once, and plenty of greats have done it (Phelps, Thorpe, Spitz). So the gauntlet has been thrown – can Allison Schmitt of the US or Yannick Agnel of France fight their way back to the top of the podium? Between the event and the 4×200 Free relay the US sent 13 swimmers to the Olympics, so this is the event where the most swimmers get a chance to swim on the world’s biggest stage!

TELECAST
Men: Tuesday, June 28: 7pm (recorded trials) NBC-Sports Network; 8pm Finals NBC
Women: Wednesday, June 29: 7pm (recorded trials) NBC-Sports Network; 8pm Finals NBC

Men

2012 

The NCAAs were not a harbinger of Olympic Trials in 2012 – no one from NCAAs made it to the OT finals. Daxon Hill of Texas put up a time that won by half a second, but would have gotten smoked and placed 5th at the 2016 NCAAs. Of the heat, Joao de Lucca made it to London for Brazil and participated in the relays. The 200, as you can see in the table above, was dominated by experience. Conor Dwyer was the young hope for the future, but now four years later…there are still a lot of veterans in this race.

However, the rest of the world has the jump on the US men. Yannick Agnel of France won the 2012 Olympics by almost 2 seconds over Tae Hwan Park of South Korea. Lochte finished 5th (1:45.0) and Berens pulled a disappointing 9th (Berens made the team as the 3rd qualifier, but Phelps chose not to compete in the individual 200 so Berens earned the spot). Phelps is the only American to ever break 1:44, and while only France’s Agnel is currently under that mark many came before him. American men need 1:43s, if not better, to clinch the 200 freestyle this time around.

2016

On the list of qualifiers for Olympic Trials, the top three all swam in London: Lochte, Dwyer an McLean. Also vying for a 200-spot are veterans Michael Phelps, Connor Jaeger, and possibly Tyler Clary and Charlie Houchin. College sensations Townley Haas and Caeleb Dressel are on the list though, with Texas’s Jack Conger. Expect further challenges from Junior World Record-holder Maxime Rooney (declared to Florida), Indiana’s Zane Grothe, USC’s Reed Malone, and Indiana’s Blake Pieroni. In 2012, Phelps and Lochte were the only two men under 1:46; Dwyer and Lochte are the only two under that barrier now. But who will win those coveted relay spots? And once the two qualifiers make it, can either defeat Agnel,  Australia’s Thomas Fraser Holmes (1:45.08), or Great Britain’s James Guy (1:45.14). Perennial threat Tae Hwan Park of South Korea (the only Korean to win any Olympic Medals) is currently suspended for doping in the fall of 2014, a ban imposed by Korea, ruling him out of this race.

Women

2012

The NCAA champion, Georgia’s Megan Romano, was tussled up in the top 8 at Trials: finishing 6th in the prelims and 4th in the semi-finals, Romano was one place away from a ticket to London, finishing 7th! From her NCAA heat, 5th place finisher and teammate Shannon Vreeland made the cut finishing 5th at trials. Texas’s Karly Bispo, 2nd at NCAAs, finished 12th, only a few places behind then 15-year-old Kathleen Ledecky (you may know her as Katie). Once at the Olympics, Allison Schmitt dominated the field, putting up the second fastest time in history, defeating world-record holder Francesca Pelligrini. Missy Franklin finished .01 out of bronze in an impressive 1:55.82 (also beating the WR-holder).

2016

Schmitt and Franklin are both back, but Katie Ledecky has thrown her imposing hat into the mix – and is the top seed. Ledecky does not like losing, and she now has the 6th fastest time in history, behind only Schmitt, Pelligrini and Sweden’s Sara Sjostrom. Besides Franklin and Ledecky, only Vreeland and Leah Smith, the distance specialist from UVA, have broken into the top 10 US all-time 200 swimmers since the last Olympics.

Defending Olympic Champion, American Record Holder, and Georgia Bulldog Allison Schmitt, one of the most dominant freestylers out there, will be fighting a pair of titans in Katie Ledecky and Missy Franklin in the 200.

At this year’s NCAA finals, Smith finished 6th with a 1:43.5, a time which does not convert to her impressive LCM 1:56.6 from earlier this month, evidencing that she’s gotten into high-gear leading up to OTs, or that she is a much stronger LCM swimmer. Georgia’s Brittany McLean took 1st in a 1:42.42, ahead of Louisville’s Mallory Comerford and Standford’s Lea Neal, but all well behind Missy Franklin’s record of 1:39.10. Franklin who is a very strong SCY swimmer puts their times into perspective; but then you have to wonder, if Leah Smith can make that jump, who else can?

Hali Flickinger, though smaller than many of her teammates, comes from the Georgia pedigree of incredible 200 swimmers. Her best time now is a 1:58.1, but she could definitely drop into relevance. In 2016 it took a 1:58.40 to make top 6 (despite even swimmers like Romano swimming 1:57 in the semi-finals to have a slightly off final). Swimming under a 1:58.0 is where the bar will be set this year.

As mentioned, Schmitt, Franklin and Ledecky are poised to dominate the event, and guessing which two of those three will qualify for the individual is harder than picking lottery numbers. But to round out the relay, expect the likes of Cal’s Katie McLaughlin, Standford star Maya DiRado, Vreeland, and another Bulldog Melanie Margalis (all under 1:58 already) to fight with Flickinger, Cal’s Elizabeth Pelton, Cierra Runge (previously of Cal, later Wisconsin), and sprint sensation Simone Manuel. (Of interest: Pelton, Runge, and Franklin were all teammates at Cal, but by next season only Pelton will remain of the three).

So in some ways, this event breaks down to Georgia Bulldogs, Cal swimmers, and Katie Ledecky – and it’s hard to bet against any of the three!

 

US Olympic Swimming Trials – 100 Freestyle

The 100 freestyle has a much more storied history at the Olympics than the 50, dating back to 1896 for men.  For years, the US had the 100 and the 4×100 Freestyle Relay locked down – we had swimming legends Duke Kahanmoku, Johnny Weissmuller  (AKA Tarzan from the silver screen), and other Americans peppering the list of  Men’s 100m Olympic Champions. Going into the 1992 Olympics the US had never gone more than 2 Olympics without a gold; since 1992, America has only won once (Nathan Adrian 2012).

On the Women’s side, despite strong showing sweeping the podium in both 1920 and 1924, and grabbing every gold from 1920-1932, the US has only won gold TWICE since then. We’ve been competitive, but the rest of the world has kept America’s women looking almost pedestrian in the 100m freestyle. The US has grabbed bronze in 2000, 2004 and 2008, and the young Missy Franklin finished 5th in 2012.

So let’s look at who’s likely going to represent the US in 2016, and how they might do.

Men

2012

In 2012, Texas’s Jimmy Feigen won the 100 y freestyle at NCAAs, followed by Brazilian Marcelo Chierighini of Auburn and SoCal’s Vlad Morozov. Feigen went on to finish fifth at 2012 Olympic Trials, in an incredibly competitive heat behind Nathan Adrian with Cullen Jones, Matt Grevers, Ricky Berens, and Jason Lezak. Feigen was the only collegiate-aged swimmer in the final (and even he had already finished school). Adrian went on to win gold in London, just touching out Australian power-house James Magnussen by .01. Neither of them were particularly close to Ceasar Cielo-Fihlo’s 2009 world record.

Feigen swam in the heats of the 4x100m Free relay where the USA won a silver behind France. The USA had never lost the 4x100m Free relay from its inception in 1964 through 1996, however they’ve only had one gold since, part of Michael Phelps’ 8-Gold Medal effort in 2008 on the back of a blistering anchor leg by Jason Lezak to out-touch Alain Bernard of France.

2016

Feigen’s NCAA time of 41.95 would have placed 6th in 2016 NCAAs. The college swimmers are poised to make a big impact on the final heat of Olympic Trials. Caeleb Dressel’s 40.46 that won him the 100y freestyle at NCAAs is projected to break the long-standing world record. Dressel’s detractors point to him losing 2 turns in the 100m free, which could take away from his hard-won advantage from underwater kicking. He has never swam the 100 LCM free in a time under 49 seconds.

Behind Dressel, Simonas Bilis of Lithuania and Kristian Gkolomeev of Greece took 2nd and 3rd at NCAAs, but the 4th-6th were taken by US swimmers with times about or better than Feigen’s 2012 time (NC State’s Ryan Held, Texas’s Brett Ringgold, and Missouri’s Michael Chadwick). Adrian’s 47.5 in London is the fastest US time since 2009, and of collegiate swimmers, Chadwick has the fastest recorded LCM time at 48.87. Expect the regular crowd led by Adrian, Jones, Josh Schneider, and perhaps Lochte, Phelps, and Berens.

And, lest we forget, there’s another young gun in the mix. Ryan Hoffer burst onto the National scene in December 2015, annihilating the previous National Age Group record for 17-18 year olds, dominating a very fast heat, and posting a time of 41.23 – a time that would have placed third at NCAAs this year, and would have won many of last 10 year’s NCAA Championships. His conversion, somewhere around 48.0 seconds, would have finaled at the 2012 Olympics, been the top qualifier at 2012 US Trials, and would be third or fourth among all-time best swims by active American swimmers. Again, though, Hoffer derives his advantage from incredible underwaters – his start is certainly formidable, but at every turn Hoffer pulled further ahead in the race, and with two less turns this could damage Hoffer’s dominance. Like never before, the 2016 US Olympic Trials will be a comparison of short-course-yards underwater-based sprinters, and long-course meters International-focused swimmers.

Women

2012

The 100 SCY freestyle was won at the 2012 NCAAs by the Bahamas’ Arianna Vanderpool-Wallace, who would go on to finish 10th at the Olympics. Behind her, Georgia’s Megan Romano and Arizona’s Margo Geer took 2nd and 3rd.

At Olympic Trials, there was a unique combination of swimmers in the 100LCM final: 2 high school swimmers (Missy Franklin and Lea Neal), 5 post-graduate swimmers (Champion Jess Hardy, Amanda Weir, Natalie Coughlin, Dana Vollmer and Madison Kennedy) and Allison Schmitt, who took the 2011-12 school year off to train for the Olympics, in which she would ultimately win 5 medals. (When she returned to Georgia, they won the 2013 NCAA Championships).

Franklin went on to finish 5th, and Hardy 8th, in the Olympic finals.

2016

The absence of college swimmers in the 2012 100LCM freestyle finals lead many to think designating a year to training may be important. That’s one reason this year’s top seed, Simone Manuel, didn’t compete at the collegiate level for the 2015-2016 season. Manuel’s 53.25 would have finished 2nd in London, and the women’s 100 freestyle is full of young talent, compared to the veteran-heavy brigade on the men’s side. Also foregoing a collegiate career, Abbey Weitzeil is a top sprinter, vying for a spot in the 50 and the 100 freestyle, focusing her training on meters to be better prepared for Trials and the Olympiad.

Stanford’s Simone Manuel, who won the 100y Freestyle at 2015 NCAAs as a Freshman by over a second, defeating teammate and Olympic medalist Lia Neal, did not compete for the 2015-2016 season to focus on the Olympics.

Franklin, Schmitt, Couglin, Vollmer and Weir will all be back, as will collegiate talent Lia Neal, Kelsi Worrell, Shannon Vreeland, and Olivia Smoliga. Geer and Romano are both back in the mix, and 2015’s NCAA bronze medalist Natalie Hinds, who had an off NCAAs in 2016, is also further down the list and could pull out a big drop for Trials.

Finally, one of the most electric names in swimming right now, Katie Ledecky, who has deftly dismantled the stroke of freestyle and put it back together in a whole new way by rewriting the record boards from the 1500 down, has a blazing-fast time of 53.75 (4th fastest this cycle). No woman has ever qualified for the 800LCM freestyle and the 100LCM freestlye – in fact, Allison Schmitt’s versatility from 100-400 is considered prodigious, but Ledecky has defied expectations for years, and is in a rare position to stake her claim to being to un-contested best female freestyle swimmer in history.

China, Australia and the Netherlands have impressive squads of sprint freestyle swimmers, and in 2012 the finals was a sampling of 7 different countries, so the next Olympic Champion could be from anywhere; however, Cate and Bronte Campbell of Australia have had this even locked town, with 7 of the top 10 times ever swum between them (the other three, including the world record, all belong to Britta Steffen from 2009). The US will need to put up quite a fight to even have a chance against that 4×100 freestyle relay. The US women have always made the podium, but haven’t clinched a gold since the 2000 Sydney Olympics. Expectations are high for Manuel and Franklin, but there are a lot of names fighting to make the top 6, and this should be quite a race.

 

Thinking About Swimming’s Olympic Trials – 50 Free

Olympic Trials is a place where the best swimmers in the US concentrate their efforts. No meet has the elite turnout of Olympic Trials – no Nationals, Grand Prix, or NCAA Championship collects raw talent like this one special meet. It’s where age-group standouts face college champions, all stacked against a growing army of US National Team veterans. The feeling is electric – there is nothing like Trials.

But how do we look forward to this meet? Who is truly a “favorite” here? Let’s look at history, the NCAA Championships, and the field at large to get an idea of how we can analyze this meet. Today, I’ll break down the 50 Free.

Men’s 50 Free

 

2012

In 2012 the NCAA Champion was Texas’s Jimmy Feigen, who turned in a 19.01 to edge Vlad Morozov (who swam for Southern California). Feigen trained LCM leading up to Olympic Trials in 2012, and when it came to the showdown in Omaha Feigen finished 5th behind top qualifier Cullen Jones and the Olympic Veteran 31-year-old Anthony Ervin. US favorite Nathan Adrian and Josh Schneider finished 3rd and 4th respectively.

From the NCAA final heat, Jason Schnur of the Ohio State University also made the top 8 in Omaha, but neither he, Feigen, nor Morozov for Russia made it to the Olympics in 2012. Feigen also took the NCAA title in the 100 free, which I’ll get back to another day.

2016

This year, you haven’t been paying much attention to swimming if you don’t know the name Caeleb Dressel. Competing for Florida he shattered the world record in the 50 Freestyle at NCAAs this March (foreshadowed by his dominance at SEC Championships just weeks before). His 18.23 was the fastest swim ever, and discounting times from the infamous ‘tech-suit era’ (with two amazingly fast swimmers, Brazil’s Cesar Cielo and Australia’s Matt Targett) Dressel’s is the fastest time by .4 seconds, soundly besting international stars Vlad Morozov of Russia, Kristian Gkolomeev of Greece, and Nathan Adrian of the USA.

Now that time, like Feigen’s above, is for a collegiate SCY (25 short course yard) pool; the Olympics are 50 long course meters (LCM). Conversions put his time around a 21.0, though Dressel derives much of his advantage from superhuman underwater kicks off the turn, which is absent in LCM. France’s Florent Manaudou won London’s 2012 Olympics with a 21.34, so there’s reason for excitement.

2016 NCAA Champion, Olympic hopeful, and World Record Holder Caeleb Dressel.

Dressel is considered a strong contender to make it to the big show this year (his LCM time of 21.53 from last summer is the 2nd fastest this cycle and would have won 2012 Trials), but the field is full. Of the contenders in 2012, look for both qualifiers (Jones and Ervin) along with Schneider, Feigen, Adrian, perennial threat and backstroker Matt Grevers, and more to vie for a place on Team USA. Around the world, France’s Manaudou, Bruno Fratus of Brazil, and Australia’s Cam McEvoy pose the most immediate threat for the medal stand; although 2nd and 3rd place 2016 NCAA finishers Simonas Bilis of Lithuania and Gkolomeev of Greece will both be hoping to make the Olympic final as well. It should be a good fight – the US has won 3x since the 50’s introduction in 1988 (1988 – Matt Biondi, 2000 – Gary Hall Jr & Anthony Ervin tie, 2004 – Gary Hall Jr).

Women’s 50 Free

2012

On the Women’s side, 2012 NCAA Champion Liv Jensen of Cal had a disappointing prelims, finishing 11th going into semi-finals where she was disqualified. The NCAA runner up, Margo Geer of Arizona, fought her way into an experienced Final Heat at trials in which she lost to qualifiers Jessica Hardy and Kara Lynn Joyce, and the prestigious likes of Christine Magnuson and Dara Torres (then 45). Rounding out the NCAA’s podium was Bahamanian swimmer Arianna Vanderpool-Wallace from Auburn. Despite having the top two NCAA finishers, the USA’s women didn’t fare particularly well that Olympics, with Hardy grabbing 7th just ahead of  Vanderpool-Wallace. The Olympic Finals in the 50 was a runaway by the Netherland’s Ranomi Kromowidjojo, clocking in at a 24.05, faster than Dara Torres’s American Record set in 2008.

2016

The 2016 NCAA Champion, Georgia’s Olivia Smoliga, had a definitive win, though not as dominant as Dressel’s. Outside of the collegiate world, Stanford standout Simone Manuel took this year off from NCAA swimming to train for the Olympics; she currently has the 4th fastest time in US history behind the retired Torres, Amanda Weir, and 5th-place finisher from 2012 Trials Madison Kennedy. Manuel and Kennedy are already faster than both Hardy and Joyce in recorded LCM times. So where will Smoliga fit? Her converted time puts her right in the mix, and her SCY time is a couple tenths faster than 2012’s Jensen, so it’s going to be a tough fight.

The 2016 NCAA runner-up,  Cal’s Farida Osman, expects to represent Egypt this summer; also in that NCAA heat were London-2012 sprinter Lea Neal who finished 6th, and Kelsi Worrell. Worrell, who we’d expect to make the biggest splash in the 100 fly, grabbed 4th behind the Ohio State’s Liz Li. Worrell has the 10th fastest qualifying time for trials as of June 14th.

Besides Kennedy, look for Olympic Trials veterans Natalie Coughlin, Dana Vollmer,  Geer,  Neal, Hardy and Weir to be in the mix. Missy Franklin also has the cut.

No matter who qualifies, they’ll have their work cut out for them in Rio fighting Australia’s Cate Campbell with the second fastest time ever (23.84) behind Britta Steffen’s 2009 World Record. Campbell is the only woman with multiple swims under 24.00. The US has only won one Olympic gold on the women’s side, with Amy van Dyken in 1996. Of the other 4 medals won by US women in the 50, 2 belong to Dara Torres (silver and bronze), and the last two are both bronze, won by Angel Martino in 1992 and Jill Sterkel in the inaugural women’s 50 in 1988.

Eastern Promises – Tai Chi Rehab

The 500+-year-old martial art of Tai Chi, practiced for self-defense and self-preservation, and once considered for demonstration in the Olympics, may be a new therapy for the aging world population. A new study in the Annals of Internal Medicine describes how patients diagnosed with chronic knee pain and osteoarthritis enjoyed significant relief after a Tai Chi regiment. Patients randomized into either a Physical Therapy group or a Tai Chi group to combat their pain and arthritis both reported significant relief on scales of pain and discomfort.

Robert De Niro, in a diverse group of Brooklyn natives, practices Tai Chi in the heartwarming 2015 comedy “The Intern”, saving his knees for further movies.

Both groups in this trial, totaling 200 individuals, reported pain relief. Interestingly, however, the individuals who practiced Tai Chi for 12 weeks reported much better scores for depression and mental well-being after 1 year. Tai Chi employs a number of mental objectives that may help arthritis-sufferers better cope with their pain and relax their bodies. The art of focusing thought and motion can combat many physical ailments, or so many cultures believe, but this was almost certainly one of the first controlled scientific studies documenting the real health benefits of Tai Chi. The “Taiji Philosophy” may offer individuals across the world relief from pain, both mental and physical. Further studies are certain to follow, but it can’t hurt to start!

Scientists 2/3 of Way to Making South Park’s Manbearpig

When South Park‘s parody of Al Gore warned the world of Manbearpig in 2006, show creators Trey Parker and Matt Stone probably didn’t imagine that within 10-years genetic engineers would actually be mixing porcine (pig) and human genomes. Despite a moratorium by the National Institutes of Health (NIH), through which the government agency essentially decided not to fund research on human-animal chimeric genome editing, a group from UC-Davis is moving forward introducing human stem cells into pig embryos. The BBC reported these experiments after gathering material for the program “Medicines Big Breakthrough: Editing Your Genes” for Panorama.

The UC-Davis team introduced stem cells from humans into the embryos of pigs. The goal of such experiments is to have the pigs develop human organs that could be implanted into humans without the transplant rejection often associated with animal organ donations, or “xenografts”.

The science team first genetically modified the pig embryo such that it would not develop a pancreas; then they injected human embryonic stem cells. Their hypothesis is that the human cells will be called upon to fill the void and begin to develop a functional and integrated pancreas. Sows were implanted with the chimeric pig embryos, and the team will let the embryos develop for 28 days, or almost 25% of a porcine pregnancy, by which time the pancreas should begin developing. The research team will then analyze the progression of embryonic pancreatic development.

The BBC’s own press release on Monday discusses in greater depth the science of these experiments, the great impact this could have on organ transplantation, the ethical treatment of lab animals for organ generation and harvesting, and the moral conundrums of beginning to make animals with human features. For now though,  the threat of Manbearpig is still distant.

South Park‘s fabled Manbearpig, as described by an earnest caricature of Al Gore in 2006, is the exaggerated but feared byproduct of human/animal chimeric research.

A Rose at Any Other Temperature…

Stop and smell the roses…while you still can. A study from Alon Cna’ani at the Hebrew University suggests that the rise in global temperature will take a toll on floral fragrance. In his work, published last year in Plant, Cell & Environment, Cna’ani’s group demonstrated that at different temperatures the production of scent in petunia flowers changes. Their work identified a gene important in the regulation of scent production; through genetic manipulation, Cna’ani was able to not only show that the gene could be re-engineered to make floral scent temperature-independent, but also that the same gene played a role in the expression of pigments in petals (as described in a separate paper in The New Phytologist). The genetic linkage between the scent and color traits may indicate an evolutionary advantage, allowing flowers to respond to their specific environment and climate.

The temperature change in the experiment (a mere 6 Celsius) was enough to notably decrease production of fragrance-creating enzymes. Thus, as global temperatures rise, fragrance may decline. While floral smells may seem the least pressing concern with imminent flooding, arctic restructuring, and weather destabilization, there is a delicate role fragrance plays in pollination, germination, and the spread of flora in ecosystems.

These studies, in which Cna’ani de-coupled the natural scent-temperature dependency through genetic engineering,  also open an interesting page of the discussion around GMOs. For generations, humans have bred plants extensively to preserve the traits most desirable. Being able to genetically modify flowers to be more fragrant is akin to genetically modifying apples to be sweeter, or rice to be more nutritious (both changes that, while well-received by consumers, many anti-GMOers balk at). At the moment, noone has objected to such manipulation of flowers; however, this is further evidence that cherry-picking traits genetically can be as simple as mutating a single gene.

 

 

Chemistry is NOT a Laughing Matter

Some chemists like to sit around, telling a joke only chemists would appreciate:

“A man walks into a bar. The bartender asks what he wants and he says, ‘I’ll have an H2O!’ The bartender serves him a glass and he takes a sip. The man next to him says, ‘I’ll have an H2O too.’ The bartender smiles, and serves him a glass. The man takes a sip…and he dies.”

Chemists love this joke, because they think that only they know that H2O2 is hydrogen peroxide – but chemistry is not a laughing matter. Chemists: beware the jokes you exchange with knowing smiles and intellectual groans. Below is the true story.

A man walks into a bar.

He didn’t do it every day, he didn’t even care for bars anymore, but he needed a drink; it didn’t matter what it was. It was 96 degrees outside, the teeming city was hot and oppressive and the man had had a very long day. As he walked in his eyes adjusted to the dim lighting – he realized that he hadn’t had a drink by himself since his early 20s. He had been a bit of a mess then, drinking every night, running about town, frivolously spending what little money he had. He had been blessed to chance upon a girl, not the most beautiful girl, nor the funniest, but a girl who cared about him and helped him and eventually saved him. This girl straightened him up, helped him get a job, and made him a man. They fell in love and now had 2 children who looked up to him. The man was a father, husband, and in many ways a success.

The bartender asks what he wants…

The man looked at his watch. 5:20. “I could grab a quick beer,” he thought as he looked around. There was a sparse crowd – almost no chance of getting caught in a conversation or coerced into a second. But even as he thought about it, he could see the shadows of his youth – a life he had left behind. How many nights had he walked into a bar alone, seeking nothing but a beer and not knowing where he was going? Right now he was thirsty and tired, but he didn’t need alcohol to comfort him. Just a water…

…and he says, “I’ll have an H2O!” The bartender serves him a glass and he takes a sip.

The cool water felt good on his lips, his tongue, his whole mouth – he felt a wave a relief. It was not just from the water, but from the strength he had found in himself. He looked down the bar – the next man was sitting there behind 3 empty glasses. He looked as though he had been there for some time, his eyes not quite able to focus. He had been well-dressed, perhaps that morning…or the morning before, it was hard to say. A shudder ran down the first man’s spine. The second man looked up at him darkly, sneered for a moment, and then his face slackened. His head jerked towards the bartender like a poorly controlled marionette doll, his lower lip dangling as a sheen of saliva slid out the side.

The man next to him says, “I’ll have an H2O too.” 

He slurred heavily. The second man could sense how drunk he was. He was drowning himself – it had been the worst day of his life. The man had left for work that morning but realized halfway there he’d forgotten a very important document on his desk. When he got home he found a strange car in the driveway. Over the long years he and his wife had become distant, fighting more and more, but he still loved her and had never expected her to cheat on him. Finding some strange man on top of his wife nearly killed him on the spot. He crumbled. She wouldn’t apologize – she screamed, “You made me do this! You don’t appreciate me!” Her words stabbed him like knives because he knew they were true, to a point. He had focused on work – he had to pay for their daughter’s college. She had turned down a full ride to Marist to attend Yale and it was draining every cent of savings they had. He had worked overtime for months on top of his already busy schedule. “I’m doing this for my family,” he would tell himself. He half ran, half crawled from his broken home to his car and drove away. He was manic, his eyes wide and desperate. When he got a hold of himself he was in a strange corner of the city driving aimlessly. He stopped at the first bar he found and at 11am he ordered his first of 12 glasses of whiskey. He was ready for another until he saw this new man walk into the bar and order water. Water!? How could this man just drink water today, the worst day of all time? Water won’t dull the pain! He sneered at the stranger, who looked back at him with a mix of fear and disgust. That was when the drunk man realized that he needed to pull himself together. His marriage may be ruined but he had a daughter, a job, responsibilities… He needed to sober up and head home and make sense of everything. The prospect scared him – home would never be the same – but he knew it was the right thing to do. As he made his order, he had decided to face his crumbling world head on.

The bartender smiles, and serves him a glass… 

The drunk man missed the gleam in the bartender’s eye. The bartender hated this man – sitting morosely in the bar all day, not speaking, drooling – he was pathetic. He had at times sobbed, shouted that he wanted to die and his life was over, and generally been a burden, frightening off other customers. The bartender could not stand people like this. The drunk had been ordering the cheapest whiskey all day, not indicating he would tip, and never even acknowledging the service. In reality, the bartender thought the man deserved whatever misfortune had befallen him.

…the man takes a sip, and he dies.

As the drunk man turned the glass up to his mouth, he caught a whiff of the liquid. Hydrogen peroxide!? But why? But then, why not? Wasn’t this what he really wanted? It was his escape. His momentary confusion gave way to resolve – as the fluid entered his mouth he didn’t spit it out, but he let it roll down his throat. He was numb already, it hardly burned at first but then it became an awful, unimaginable feeling, like being stabbed with 1,000 knives. The room started spinning; he felt the breath being squeezed out of his body. He thought of his daughter, and for a moment he regretted everything; but when he thought of what he’d seen that day he knew he couldn’t bear to live. He didn’t die instantly, but he did lose consciousness before he collapsed to the bar. His heart beat on valiantly for a few more seconds before finally all the life was burned out of him.

The man, who had just walked in, jumped up, horrified. “My God! What happened?” he shouted. The bartender began screaming, “You heard him! You heard him say it didn’t you? He asked for  H2O2! He wanted this! I just gave him his drink. He wanted it, he deserved it!” The bartender screamed wildly. The living man began to realize he would be late for dinner after all. As the bartender’s voice rose to an insane tenor the man swore never to enter a bar again. “I’m innocent; you can’t blame me for what that pathetic fool wanted!” The bartender was truly mad.

Pi Day 2016 – A Poetic Recap

Welcome Pi Lovers! If today is still March 14th, Happy Pi Day!

Please enjoy this salute to Pi – throughout my graduate school career I’ve been collecting memes, writing poems, and otherwise trying to find fun expressions of Pi and other mathematical terms. Here’s a “Best Hits” post of everything Pi-related.

Also, check out the Pi in the Sky Post on this same blog.

2016 Pi Letter-count Poetry
“3”= a 3-letter word, “1” = a 1-letter word, “4” = a 4-letter word; or “14” = a 14-letter word…

Untitled 1

Can I have a horse. (by Jennifer Knauss)

3      1   4      1   5

Untitled 2

Set a poem a month, conscious of effort given, and write strongly.

3     1  4         1  5             9                  2   6          5           3      5         8

Untitled 3

Yes, Existentialism I found worrisome as advice – never was death inviting!

3       14                         1 5            9                  2   6              5          3       5          8

Untitled 4

The indestructible electromagnetic supercoil is losing power!

3       14                        15                             9                2  6           5

2015 Pi Numerical Acrostic  
3.14… = C.AD…
(Three Short Pieces)

Circumference
.
A
Diameter
Assaults
Evident
Indivisibility.
Built
For
Every
Circle.
Enticing
However
Infinite.

Circle
.
Always
Driving
Amazing
Equations.
Incessantly
Burgeoning
Flawlessly
Empirical
Calculations.

C’mon.
A
Dumb
Archimedes
Even
Isn’t
Bothering.
Forget
Everything.

Here is a musical interlude:

Pi, being numeric, can be adapted into music quite easily. Now, making it sound good is a different story. I had tinkered with this idea on a piano in 2012 or so before finding that nearly two decades before someone had composed a symphony and then gone to great lengths to arrange a fantastic performance.

On YouTube you can find many adaptations of Pi in music, but I particularly like this one. The musical arrangement is modern in its harmonies, romantic and American in its sensibilities and is overall just pleasant to hear, and the semi-narrated video describes fascinating parts of the production process.  Here is the first movement of the Pi Symphony, performed by the Ruse Orchestra in Bulgaria.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGK2i2BaWW8

 

2014 and Earlier: Traditional Pi Canon

Limerick
There once was a Greek, Archimedes,
Who loved to eat lots of good sweeties,
So he came up with Pi,
Became quite a round guy,
And now he can’t see his own feeties.

Haiku
3 Point 1 4 1
5  9  2  6  5  3  5
8  9  7  9

Acrostic
Perfectly
Irrational

Many people considered last year (3.14.15) to be the best Pi day. This yea, 3.14.16, is really just 3.14159 rounded up! HAPPY ROUNDED PI DAY!

Free Verse
Pi, you endless
circular, non-repeating, non-repeating fraction
Never be shackled by 22/7
Break free, for though your roots are of division,
You are infinite.

Petrarchan Sonnet
As I woke up one clear fourteenth of March,
And came to look upon the azure sky,
It crossed my mind it was the day of pi,
As I munched on my bowl of curds and starch.
And such was mine to celebrate the date,             5
That comes but once a year, this 3 – 1 – 4.
I cast confetti out upon the floor,
Then swept it up, which for work made me late.
And, lo, my boss just did not understand,
The reason for my less than timely trip,                 10
For I was loathe to speak to him the truth.
But my coworker Dave did lend a hand,
and told of 3 – 1 – 4, which I did skip,
To which my grinning boss poured us vermouth.

Anagram
Ip

2014’s The World of Pi – Unfinished by the artist, because…well he got busy ok!

The Pi in the Sky (A Graphic Novel)

Many thanks to Dr. Seuss for creating all but one of the characters, Archimedes for defining pi as the ratio of a circumference of a circle to its diameter (~3.14), and most especially Emily Mercer for the outstanding, true to form, and imaginative illustrations that have brought this poem to life.

If life drives your crazy, may your madness bring joy!

HAPPY PI DAY!